From Oracles to modern days the predictors are making their predictions by collecting data from the environment. Travelers reports are transforming to the internet. But the method of the prediction is always the same. The information is used as a matrix, and then the predictor searches for similar things from history. If some kind of thing caused war many times. The predictor will calculate the probability of war. And that thing is one of the most useful ways to make predictions. If a similar situation caused the war 7 times out of 10, the probability of war is 70%. The things that predictor must notice are: (at least) -Political environment on both sides. -Economic situation. -Corruption. -Health care. -Public services etc... The reason for war might be very simple. The public attention wanted to turn away from some things like corruption or internal problems. If the government is very authoritarian. The outside enemy gives an excuse for censorship and cru...
For finding solutions for problems, we must not claim that some proposition is right or wrong. All possibilities are open. Until they are proven right or wrong using empiric methods that are scientifically accepted.